VML Season 12 Week 3 Metagame Update

by Noah R-G

No pithy little intro, we’re diving right into data analysis this week!

Last Week’s Results

Performance graph for decks with 3 or more players; the size of the circle is the number of decks, and the height is its win rate.

Finding themselves in much more favorable matchups than in week 1, last week’s winningest decks were Dimir Control (6 players) and Boros Convoke (5 players), with 100% win rates for both decks.

Among the more popular decks, Esper Midrange and Azorius Control were (perhaps unsurprisingly) the only two with winning records. Esper Midrange’s 13 players achieved a 61.5% winrate, and Azorius Control’s 14 players earned a 57.1% win rate.

The other three most popular decks had a rough week 2. Temur Analyst, last week’s largest archetype with 16 players, earned a 42.9% win rate. Golgari Midrange, with 13 players, managed a 45.5% win rate. And VML-favorite 4-Color Slogurk only earned a 41.7% win rate across 12 players.

Some of this can be attributed to the fact that combo decks are, generally, more difficult to pilot and more prone to falling apart if a key piece is removed (I say this as a combo lover). Temur Analyst ran into both Azorius Control and Bant Toxic, which are decks notoriously good against combo. While Slogurk players were able to prey on Temur Analyst decks, they fell short against Azorius Control as well.

Top Decks vs Top 3

Each week, I list the deck archetypes that have been the most successful against last week’s popular decks in VML. The suggested counterpicks are based only on data from VML season 12. As the season goes on and we get more data, this segment will get more accurate.

Temur Analyst

Current Overall Win Rate: 50.5% (38 matches)

Counterpicks: 4-Color Slogurk, Bant Toxic, Esper Midrange, Gruul Aggro, Domain Ramp

Azorius Control

Current Overall Win Rate: 55.6% (27 matches)

Counterpicks: Esper Midrange, Temur Analyst, Dimir Control

Esper Midrange

Current Overall Win Rate: 57.7% (26 matches)

Counterpicks: Domain Ramp, Dimir Control

Week 3 Decks

While the deck pie chart remains fairly evenly sliced, we have some noticeable changes from the previous weeks.

“Other” represents decks with 2 or fewer players.

Esper Midrange has regained its throne as the most popular deck in VML, with 19 players and a 15.1% metashare. Temur Analyst still remains popular, with 17 players and a 13.5% metashare. Golgari Midrange rounds out the top 3, with 14 players and a 11.1% metashare.

In a surprise downward swing, Azorius Control has fallen to 7 players and a 5.6% metashare, half of where it was last week. Where did last week’s control players go? Largely into Temur Analyst and 4-Color Slogurk, with a smattering of other archetypes.

Spice Corner

This week’s most unique decks include january’s Mono-Black Crimes, Soph’s Naya Ramp, and Charlotte Little’s Azorius Artifacts.

january’s “CRIMES OF THE PRESENT” is a mono-black midrange deck aiming to cause crimes and have a good time with plenty of new legendaries like Tinybones, the Pickpocket Tinybones, the Pickpocket , Vadmir, New Blood Vadmir, New Blood , and Kaervek, the Punisher Kaervek, the Punisher . While the game plan is largely the same as any black-based midrange (plenty of removal and hand disruption), the extra legendaries turn Tinybones Joins Up Tinybones Joins Up into an extra clock.

Soph’s “catgirl typal” is a Naya ramp deck that wants to double up Roxanne, Starfall Savant Roxanne, Starfall Savant and Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness Etali, Primal Conqueror Etali, Primal Sickness
triggers with Annie Joins Up Annie Joins Up . The ramp package, in addition to the meteorites from Roxanne herself, includes Glimpse the Core Glimpse the Core as classic “fetch lands from the deck” ramp and Outcaster Trailblazer Outcaster Trailblazer as a way to bank mana for future turns.

Charlotte’s “Simulcast” is an Azorius artifacts deck that wants to get Simulacrum Synthesizer Simulacrum Synthesizer out as fast as possible to churn out Karnstructs (Construct Token) and overwhelm the opponent with an army of artifacts. The deck runs artifact-based removal, boardwipes, and ramp like Assimilation Aegis and Unstable Glyphbridge // Sandswirl Wanderglyph Unstable Glyphbridge Sandswirl Wanderglyph
, and The Mightstone and Weakstone The Mightstone and Weakstone . (Side note, as someone who also plays this deck sometimes, I like the variant that runs Cryptic Coat Cryptic Coat for repeatable Synthesizer triggers.)

Full weekly stats can be found here.